2012 Republican Primary
There has been so much coverage of the 2012 Republican Primary lately that I have become sick of the coverage, in much the same way I am sick of hearing about Tim Tebow.
It is great to hear reporter’s takes on who they think will win. It is great the media is covering the primaries in such detail. However, the average American is paying no attention to any of this. I am sure they have heard of each candidate in passing at least once. The biggest problem is that the media never makes light of the candidate’s political stances. Unless one really tries to pay attention, they would not know Ron Paul isn’t a “real” republican. He is a libertarian.
During the course of the past few months, I have repeatedly heard about who is “winning” the race.
Let us analyze the latest Iowa Caucus poll conducted by Insider Advantage.
The poll shows the following:
2012 President: Republican Caucus
23% Romney
22% Paul
18% Santorum
16% Gingrich
10% Perry
6% Bachmann
2% Huntsman
These numbers echo just about everything the media has reported. But upon further examination, one would notice the poll only involves 729 people. Since this poll has been reported, it must represent a majority of voters, or at least a large minority. It does not. Iowa’s population contains more than 3 million people. Therefore, 729 is not even one percent of the population.
These incredibly minute numbers are echoed in just about every poll I have seen. Occasionally a poll will ask more than one thousand people, but more than likely not.
Pollsters try to get a wide variety of demographics. With 729 people, can one really accurately predict an election?
Another important consideration is whether those people will even be part of the small minority that make the journey to the polls. Unless this year is an abnormality, the voter turnout will be abysmally low, most likely below 50 percent.
I do not want to be misconstrued as saying polls don’t matter. I am trying to say the media should take polls with a grain of salt because they are an incredibly minute portion of the electorate, who may or may not be informed about a candidate’s policy stances.
Photo credit: The Associated Press
